WS #11772

The dominant macro theme remains the ESCALATING US-Iran conflict, with fresh airstrikes and ballistic missile launches reported overnight, threatening the fragile ceasefire. However, a key counter-signal has emerged: oil prices are falling as markets price in a short-lived escalation, and the Nasdaq rallied on optimism for a diplomatic resolution. Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure continues to intensify, with strikes on the Ilsky refinery and port of Taganrog, deepening Russia's fuel crisis and supporting oil prices. In tech, the AI narrative is regaining footing, with SK Hynix's $26.5B ADS pricing and strong Asian chipmaker gains lifting sentiment. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $95M, but bitcoin rallied 3.5% to near $64,000. A major M&A development: Xavier Niel's Vega is acquiring a 16.2% stake in Vodafone for £4.4B, becoming the largest shareholder. Germany's trade surplus topped forecasts as exports hit a multi-year high. The Venezuela earthquake death toll has risen to nearly 2,000. Fermi Inc. priced a $375M convertible note at $9.52, diluting existing shareholders. Meta's in-house Iris AI chip will complement, not replace, Nvidia and AMD GPUs, according to analyst commentary. Microsoft is on track to close below its 200-week moving average, a bearish technical signal. The EU parliament passed 'chat control' legislation allowing private chat scans until 2028. Gold is under pressure as the dollar stabilizes, while copper is diverging from the geopolitical chaos.