WS #11775

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with fresh US airstrikes on Iranian targets and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to spike (Brent +6.6% to ~$79) and shipping through Hormuz to grind to a near standstill. However, a counter-signal emerges: the IEA forecasts the first annual decline in world oil demand since 2020 due to the Iran war, which could cap further price gains. Separately, SK Hynix's record $26.5bn US IPO debuts on Nasdaq, signaling strong AI-driven demand for memory chips, while Meta plans to mass-produce its own AI chip 'Iris' via TSMC starting September, challenging Nvidia's dominance. China eased its boycott of Nvidia's H200 chips, allowing Alibaba, ByteDance, and DeepSeek to purchase them, providing a boost to Nvidia's China revenue. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for US-Iran conflict (oil spike, Hormuz disruption) but with a counter-signal from IEA demand forecast; ESCALATING for AI chip competition (SK Hynix IPO, Meta's Iris, China Nvidia boost).