WS #11801

The dominant theme in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources corroborating that Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' but agreed to continue talks after Iran's request. This creates a volatile 'no ceasefire, but talking' dynamic that keeps oil supply risk premiums elevated. Separately, Russia temporarily halted shipping through the Don-Azov channel after Ukrainian strikes on tankers, threatening wheat exports and adding to energy supply concerns. The IMO condemned Iran's attempt to control Hormuz, reinforcing geopolitical risk. SK Hynix debuted on Nasdaq with a strong opening at $170, raising $26.5B in the largest foreign IPO in US history, signaling strong demand for AI memory chips and bullish for the semiconductor sector (MU, NVDA, AMD). The EU ordered Meta to fix addictive design features on Facebook and Instagram, targeting infinite scroll and autoplay, which is a regulatory headwind for META. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy report acknowledged high inflation due to tariffs, reinforcing a hawkish stance. Delta reported record revenue and $1.4B profit despite highest fuel costs, passing 60% of costs to consumers, indicating strong travel demand but bearish for airlines if oil spikes further. US gas prices rose 9 cents in two days due to renewed US-Iran strikes. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING in US-Iran tensions (ceasefire over, talks ongoing) and DE-ESCALATING in oil supply fears as talks continue, but the Azov channel halt adds a new bullish catalyst for oil.