WS #11804

The dominant theme remains the escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with the ceasefire declared over and both sides trading attacks over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump agreed to continue talks but reiterated the ceasefire is over, while Iran's top negotiator Ghalibaf stated the conflict will never end with Iran's surrender and Tehran is ready for 'all-out defence'. This keeps oil supply risk premiums elevated and is bearish for risk assets. Separately, Apple announced an expanded landmark deal with Broadcom (AVGO) now expected to top $30B through 2031, including $1.5B investment in Broadcom's Fort Collins facility. Meta remains a top large-cap pick with analysts seeing significant upside, and NVDA bounced 10% off its 200-day moving average. SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut opened at $170 (14% above offer), raising $26.5B in the largest foreign IPO in US history. Bitcoin popped to $64,000 on Iran talks sentiment. The US-Iran narrative is ESCALATING, while the semiconductor narrative is STABLE with bullish company-specific signals. A counter-signal emerged: four US senators reached a deal with the Trump administration to move Russia sanctions legislation forward, which could dampen geopolitical risk premiums. Additionally, the Fed's monetary policy report acknowledged high inflation due to tariffs, signaling rates may stay higher for longer.