WS #11808

The dominant theme remains the escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Trump reiterating the ceasefire is over but agreeing to more talks. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Bluesky, Bloomberg, Epoch Times). However, Iran's Fars News Agency denies new talks are scheduled, and Polymarket shows bets on Strait of Hormuz disruption. The narrative is STABLE relative to the previous window, as no new major military actions are reported, but the underlying risk remains high. Separately, SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut is a standout success, opening 14% above the offer price and raising $26.5B, providing a bullish signal for the semiconductor sector. The IEA cut its Russian oil output forecast and projects global oil demand contraction, which is bearish for oil prices but bullish for energy stocks via supply disruption. The bipartisan Russia sanctions bill with Trump's support adds to geopolitical risk. The US and Ukraine agreed to license Patriot air defense system production domestically, which is bullish for defense contractors. Meta is up 5.5% on rumors of AI chip production. The US-Iran situation is STABLE (no new escalation), while the semiconductor narrative is STABLE with bullish company-specific signals.