WS #11816

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with President Trump declaring the ceasefire 'OVER' but agreeing to continue talks. This has caused oil prices to remain elevated but below wartime peaks, with Strait of Hormuz transits falling to 22 vessels on July 9, down from ~130 pre-crisis. The IEA warns that renewed escalation could upend the oil surplus forecast. Meanwhile, SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut was a major positive for AI/semiconductor sentiment, opening at $170 (14% above IPO price) in the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company. The AI trade narrative remains intact with supportive commentary from Stifel on semi equipment stocks and WULF's $3.5B debt raise for an AI data center. Countering the macro risk, Trump decided against tariffs on commercial aircraft, providing relief to aerospace. The overall market narrative is one of geopolitical tension (ESCALATING) offset by strong AI demand signals.