WS #11857

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant macro theme, with the Strait of Hormuz crisis escalating. Iran has formally adopted a new doctrine linking strait security to any attack on its territory, threatening to close the waterway and strike two targets for every US strike. The US demands Iran publicly guarantee safe passage, but internal power struggles in Tehran complicate talks. Trump has declared the ceasefire 'OVER' while leaving room for negotiations. This escalation supports elevated oil prices and safe-haven demand for gold, while pressuring equities exposed to energy costs. Separately, Apple's lawsuit against OpenAI for trade secret theft via former employees is corroborated by multiple sources, signaling heightened legal risk for AI companies and potential headwinds for OpenAI's IPO plans. SK Hynix's CEO warned that 2027 will be the 'worst year' for memory supply, with shortages lasting until 2030, which is bullish for memory stocks (MU, SK Hynix) and AI hardware plays (NVDA, AMD). The Iran narrative is ESCALATING, while the Apple-OpenAI legal battle is a new development with medium-term implications.