WS #11869

The dominant market-moving theme in this window is the escalating US-Iran crisis over the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple sources confirming that the ceasefire is collapsing. Iran has rejected the US ultimatum to reopen the strait, insisting on its own control and charging ships for passage. Oman has proposed a dual-route management plan, but Iran insists decisions are solely between Tehran and Muscat. The US is demanding a public pledge from Iran to guarantee free transit. This geopolitical tension is driving oil prices higher, with Eni's CEO warning that prices could break above $100/barrel by Q1 2027 if the conflict persists. European gas prices have already risen to ~50 euros/MWh. The crisis is also impacting shipping and global trade, with reports of reduced shipping capacity and continued attacks on commercial vessels. Separately, Apple has filed a high-profile lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging trade secret theft related to hardware development, which could impact sentiment on both AAPL and the broader AI sector. Meta stock hit a record $670 as AI build costs undercut Wall Street models, a bullish signal for META. The Oregon Attorney General has withdrawn efforts to delay the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger, removing a regulatory overhang for PARA and WBD. The dominant narrative is the Strait of Hormuz crisis, which is ESCALATING.