WS #11889

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Multiple sources (Bluesky, GDELT, Jerusalem Post, ABC News) corroborate that Iran's IRGC Navy has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed 'until further notice' after firing warning shots and striking a commercial vessel. This represents a significant escalation from the previous stable narrative. The closure directly threatens ~20% of global oil supply, though oil prices (Brent at $76.01, WTI at $71.41) have not yet spiked, possibly due to prior pricing-in or countervailing factors like the UAE output surge. The US has revoked the Iran oil sanctions waiver, and Trump stated the ceasefire is 'over' but agreed to continue talks. Oman is mediating, but Iran has ruled out direct US negotiations. Separately, the Apple vs. OpenAI lawsuit (Apple accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets) is a high-significance development for tech sector dynamics, potentially affecting AAPL and competitive positioning in AI hardware. The SK Hynix $28B ADR listing saw 7x oversubscription and shares soared 14% on first trading day, signaling strong AI chip demand. Micron's $250B AI investment plan also drove a 7% stock surge. These semiconductor signals contradict any bearish macro narrative from the Hormuz crisis, suggesting sector-specific strength. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Hormuz crisis, while the AI/semiconductor theme remains STABLE-to-BULLISH.