WS #11912

The US-Iran conflict has escalated sharply in the last hour, with both sides launching major strikes. The US conducted a third round of strikes, hitting ~140 Iranian military targets, while Iran retaliated by attacking US facilities in Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE, and declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed. The US CENTCOM and President Trump assert the strait remains open, but tanker traffic has fallen to near zero. This escalation breaks the fragile ceasefire and significantly raises the risk of sustained oil supply disruption, which is bullish for energy stocks and bearish for airlines, consumer stocks, and indices. The IEA warns the oil market recovery hinges on Hormuz stability. Separately, Apple sued OpenAI for trade secret theft, which could delay OpenAI's hardware ambitions and is a negative for OpenAI's prospects but a positive for Apple's competitive position. The Lindsey Graham death story is being investigated by the FBI but remains unsubstantiated and is not market-moving. The Russia-Ukraine war continues with Ukraine striking Russian shipping and refineries, but this is secondary to the Iran escalation.