WS #11952

The dominant theme in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran military conflict, with Iran launching retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Oman, and declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed. This has driven oil prices up 5% and triggered a broad risk-off move in Asian and European equities, with South Korea's KOSPI falling 9% and SK Hynix plunging 15% after its Nasdaq IPO. The Strait of Hormuz closure is being treated as a material supply disruption, with shipping traffic dropping to near zero. Counter-signals are limited: the US Central Command disputes Iran's closure claim, and some European markets are showing resilience in energy stocks. TSMC reported strong June revenue (+68% YoY), confirming AI chip demand remains robust, but this positive is being overshadowed by the geopolitical crisis. The narrative is ESCALATING rapidly.