WS #11965

The dominant theme remains the escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis, with multiple corroborating signals: Trump announced reinstating an Iranian blockade and a 20% security fee on cargo, positioning the US as 'Guardian of Hormuz Strait.' Strait traffic plummeted 52% week-over-week (July 10-12), and Saudi Arabia grounded an Iranian flight to Sanaa after strikes hit the Houthi-controlled airport. Houthis accuse Saudi of attacking Sana'a airport. An economist warns oil could spike to $125 if US-Iran returns to 'hot war.' Counter-signals include Dubai constructing a new port to bypass Hormuz and DP World discussing a Fujairah terminal, which dampen but do not fully offset the immediate supply risk. Russia's seaborne oil product exports fell 27% month-on-month in June due to drone attacks. Multiple states expected to file suit against Paramount/WBD merger today. Bank of America expands regional IB ahead of earnings. SpaceX cleared to fly Starship again. The macro narrative is ESCALATING on Iran/Hormuz tensions, with oil prices surging (WTI +3.5%, Brent +3.6%).