WS #11968

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has announced the reinstatement of a US naval blockade on Iran and plans to charge a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the strait. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, BBC, Politico, Al-Monitor, and numerous social media posts), marking a significant escalation from the prior weekend's strikes. Oil prices are rising, with Brent up >3%, and energy stocks (XOM, CVX, XLE) are trading higher. The OPEC monthly report also cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 bpd from 970,000 bpd, but raised its 2027 forecast, providing a mixed demand backdrop. The blockade and fee announcement are likely to keep oil prices elevated and increase volatility in energy, shipping, and consumer sectors. Separately, Apple (AAPL) reached a new all-time high of $322, contradicting the broader tech selloff narrative. SpaceX (SPCX) continued its decline, nearing its $135 IPO price. The US State Department also launched a campaign against the International Criminal Court, but this is lower significance for markets.