WS #11970

The dominant narrative is a sharp escalation in US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump announcing a reinstated naval blockade and a 20% fee on all cargo transiting the waterway. This follows weekend strikes between the two sides, with oil prices surging (Brent +4.6% to $79.50, WTI +4.6% to $74.72) and traffic through the strait falling to its lowest level in weeks. The announcement is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, Reuters, Politico, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, CBS) and represents a significant escalation from the prior 'stable' narrative. The US State Department also launched a campaign against the International Criminal Court, and there were reports of a fatal ICE shooting in Maine and a drone attack on a Kuwaiti oil platform. SpaceX stock continued to decline, nearing its $135 IPO price. The macro theme is ESCALATING, with oil-sensitive sectors directly impacted.