WS #11989

The dominant signal is the renewed escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with the US military confirming it will enforce a naval blockade of Iranian ports starting July 14 at 4 PM ET. This follows a brief ceasefire and represents a dramatic reversal of the peace process. Oil prices have surged sharply, with WTI crude up over 7% and Brent up over 7%, reflecting the immediate supply shock. A Qatari tanker has been hit in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's IRGC has warned ships that transit without coordination is 'unacceptable and dangerous.' The UK is preparing to designate Iran's IRGC as a terrorist organization. Polymarket contracts show elevated probability of oil hitting $80+ and questions about Hormuz transit. The narrative is ESCALATING rapidly, with the blockade set to begin tomorrow. Second-order effects include bullish energy stocks (XOM, CVX, XLE) and refiners (MPC, PSX, VLO), while airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) and consumer discretionary names face headwinds. The Fed's hawkish stance, with Waller considering a rate hike if inflation remains hot, adds to the macro pressure. Federal funds futures are nearly split on a July hike. Meanwhile, a dark pool alert for META shows a $105.46M institutional order at $662.25, suggesting institutional accumulation in a MAG7 name that may be contradicting the broader risk-off macro narrative. The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee flagged increased financial stability risks from AI and leverage in equity markets. The ECB hiked rates by 25bp to 2.25% in response to the Iran war's inflationary impact.