WS #12008

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with the US launching a third night of strikes on Iran, confirmed by CENTCOM and multiple reports of explosions in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Kish Island, and Qeshm Island. President Trump announced a naval blockade on Iran and a 20% fee on all commercial cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, estimated at $30 million per supertanker. This is bullish for energy stocks (XOM, CVX) and bearish for airlines and consumer stocks. Gold dropped below $4,000 as oil surge fuels rate-hike worries. Separately, the FDA approved Biogen's LEQEMBI IQLIK subcutaneous injection for Alzheimer's, a significant development for BIIB. A federal judge voided Trump's IRS settlement, and California sued to block the Warner Bros/Paramount merger. The dominant theme is the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. A potential counter-signal emerged: Trump stated he thinks a deal with Iran is possible, per Reuters, which could dampen the bearish macro thesis if credible.