WS #12026

The dominant signal remains the US-Iran escalation, with multiple sources corroborating Trump's reinstated blockade of Iranian ports and 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo. This is escalating, with oil prices rising and supply risks heightened. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries (Afipsky, Salavat) add to supply-side pressure, with Russian oil refining at 21-year lows. China's June trade surplus beat expectations at $125.62B, driven by a tariff rush, which is a positive for Chinese exporters but may fuel trade tensions. The US June budget deficit came in at $120B due to tariff refunds, a modest fiscal negative. On the tech side, Micron's HBM demand outstripping supply through 2028 is a bullish signal for MU and AI memory. Nvidia's gridlock (analyst targets $300 vs tape at $200) suggests uncertainty. Apple's AI chip roadmap is a positive for AAPL. Private credit faces stress from higher-for-longer rates, a bearish signal for financials. The UK retail sales miss (1.7% vs 2.6% est.) is a minor consumer negative. Overall, the Iran escalation is the highest-significance development, with oil and defense stocks likely to benefit while consumer and transport sectors face headwinds.