WS #12050

The dominant signal in this window is a major de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis. President Trump announced he is replacing the proposed 20% cargo fee with trade and investment deals from Gulf states, declared the Strait open to all traffic except Iran, and limited the blockade to Iranian ports only. This directly counters the previous bearish oil thesis and has caused crude futures to pare gains. Separately, Fed Chair Warsh testified before Congress, stating there is 'no cruel choice' between stable prices and full employment, that the Fed will keep politics out of its operations, and that reforms are forthcoming—a dovish-leaning stance that reinforces the positive CPI surprise from earlier. The IBM revenue miss ($17.2B vs $17.9B est.) is a significant negative for tech spending, but its impact is partially offset by the broader market tailwinds from lower inflation and de-escalation. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING on the geopolitical front and STABLE on the monetary policy front, with Warsh's testimony confirming the Fed's data-dependent, non-political approach.