WS #12055

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in US-Iran hostilities, with multiple sources reporting US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure (Kish Island power/water, Vahdati Air Base, Qeshm Island) and Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Kuwait. This has pushed Brent above $85 and WTI above $79, ending the oversupply narrative. The UKMTO has raised the maritime threat to SEVERE across the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. Separately, Fed Chair Warsh testified, pushing back against dovish CPI interpretation ("not mission accomplished"), reaffirming 2% target and Fed independence, which tempers rate-cut expectations. IBM's earnings warning (-26%) continues to pressure enterprise software, while AMD surges on multiple analyst upgrades. The New York data center moratorium is now statewide, impacting data center REITs and AI infrastructure plays. The Paramount-WBD merger faces a lawsuit from 12 states, adding uncertainty. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for Middle East tensions, STABLE for Fed policy, and STABLE for tech sector rotation.