WS #12057

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with multiple sources reporting IRGC attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure (Kish Island, Vahdati Air Base), and a US naval blockade of Iran. This has pushed oil prices to four-week highs, with Brent above $85 and WTI near $80, ending the oversupply narrative. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is intensifying, with Trump initially proposing a 20% fee on cargo but later backtracking, saying Gulf states will invest in the US instead. Separately, IBM's preliminary Q2 revenue miss ($17.2B vs $17.9B expected) has sent its stock down ~26%, its worst drop since 1987, dragging software and IT services stocks lower. Wells Fargo reported a strong Q2 beat (EPS $2.00 vs $1.72). Fed Chair Warsh's testimony signals a hawkish stance on inflation, stating higher inflation is not acceptable and the Fed has tools to deliver price stability. New York enacted the nation's first statewide moratorium on data centers, which could impact data center REITs and tech infrastructure plays. The US-Iran conflict is escalating, with no de-escalation signals in this window.