WS #12064

The dominant macro narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil markets, but a significant counter-signal has emerged: President Trump abandoned his proposed 20% transit fee on the Strait of Hormuz, instead pivoting to trade and investment deals with Gulf states. This de-escalation on the fee front partially offsets the bearish oil supply disruption thesis, though the Strait remains contested with Iran declaring it closed and attacks continuing. Separately, IBM's historic 25%+ stock collapse after a disastrous Q2 revenue miss is a major company-specific signal, with implications for enterprise software peers. Lucid Motors is in freefall, down ~40% on bankruptcy fears, with multiple trading halts. On the macro side, June CPI came in below expectations at 3.5% YoY, reducing the probability of a Fed rate hike and boosting risk sentiment, with NVDA and AMD rallying on analyst upgrades. The Oracle downgrade to BBB- by S&P is a significant credit event, highlighting AI infrastructure debt risks. The New York data center moratorium is a negative for crypto miners like WULF and could pressure data center REITs. Overall, the narrative is shifting from pure escalation to a more nuanced picture with both de-escalation (Hormuz fee dropped, CPI soft) and pockets of severe stress (IBM, LCID, ORCL credit).