WS #12066

The dominant macro narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its oil market implications, but this window contains several high-signal developments. First, Trump has reversed his proposed 20% Hormuz cargo fee, instead pursuing Gulf investment deals—a counter-signal that dampens the bearish oil thesis. However, this is contradicted by reports of renewed US airstrikes on Iran and Iranian missile attacks on Bahrain and Jordan, indicating the conflict is escalating despite the fee reversal. Oil futures extended gains, with US diesel futures up 5% on supply disruption fears. Second, IBM suffered its worst trading day since 1987, falling ~24% after a rare pre-earnings warning, dragging on the Dow but boosting cybersecurity stocks. Third, Lucid Motors crashed ~55% on bankruptcy rumors, though the company denied them. Fourth, June CPI came in cooler than expected (3.5% YoY vs 3.8% expected), reducing Fed rate hike odds for July to 17% from 42%. This is a bullish macro signal but is partially offset by rising oil prices from renewed Iran tensions. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Iran conflict despite the Hormuz fee reversal, as military strikes continue.