WS #12068

The dominant narrative is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with active military strikes and a volatile Strait of Hormuz situation. Trump reversed his 20% Hormuz toll plan, replacing it with trade/investment deals, but Iran's IRGC continues aggressive rhetoric and strikes on US allies (Bahrain, Kuwait). Oil prices surged (Brent +2.12%, WTI +1.89%), and tanker traffic slowed. Separately, IBM plunged ~25% after a profit warning due to customer spending shifts toward AI infrastructure, dragging on the Dow but boosting cybersecurity stocks (CRWD, OKTA). Goldman Sachs surged 7.5% on a blowout quarter. Lucid Motors denied bankruptcy rumors after a 50% intraday plunge. June CPI came in cooler than expected (3.5% YoY vs 3.8% est.), reducing Fed rate hike fears and boosting risk assets (Bitcoin, crypto stocks). The US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING, while the IBM selloff is a company-specific shock. The CPI data acts as a counter-signal to hawkish Fed fears.