WS #12072

The dominant theme in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with multiple cross-corroborated developments: US airstrikes on Iran for a fourth consecutive night, Iranian strikes on a Kuwaiti naval vessel and other Gulf targets, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade being reinstated. However, a key counter-signal emerged: President Trump reversed his proposed 20% transit fee on Hormuz shipping, replacing it with investment deals from Gulf states. This de-escalatory move partially offsets the bearish oil thesis. On the macro front, June CPI came in cooler than expected (headline 3.5% vs 3.8% expected, core 2.6% vs 2.8%), reducing Fed rate hike urgency and boosting equities. Tech sector saw a major negative signal: IBM plunged ~24% after a disastrous preliminary Q2 earnings miss, citing customers shifting spending to AI infrastructure, dragging software stocks. Lucid Motors also crashed ~40% on bankruptcy rumors, though the company denied them. Bank earnings were strong: JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs beat estimates on trading volatility and investment banking fees. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the Iran conflict but with a partial de-escalation on the toll plan, while the disinflation surprise is a positive for risk assets.