WS #12074

The dominant theme in this window is the sharp escalation of US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting new US airstrikes on Iran, Iran asserting sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and the US military announcing a naval blockade effective 4 PM ET. This is partially offset by Trump backtracking on the 20% Hormuz toll plan, instead seeking trade deals. Oil prices are spiking (Brent +2.14%, WTI +1.96%, heating oil +5.13%). Meanwhile, US June CPI came in cooler than expected at 3.5% YoY (vs 4.2% prior), providing a bullish counter-narrative for equities. However, the CPI relief may be temporary due to rising oil. IBM plunged ~24% after a preliminary Q2 earnings miss, citing customer shift to AI infrastructure. Goldman Sachs hit a record high (+9%) on strong earnings. Apple's iOS 27 public beta with Siri AI launched, and Morgan Stanley sees potential iPhone 18 price hike as a catalyst. The Writers Guild sued to block Paramount/Warner Bros merger. Overall, the macro picture is mixed: Iran escalation is bearish for equities and bullish for energy, but cooler CPI and strong bank earnings provide support.