WS #12083

The dominant market-moving narrative in this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran military conflict, with multiple cross-corroborated reports of US airstrikes on Iran, Iranian missile attacks on UAE oil tankers and Bahrain, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. This is driving oil prices higher and creating significant geopolitical risk. However, a key counter-signal emerged: President Trump reversed his proposed 20% Hormuz transit fee, replacing it with investment deals from Gulf states, which partially offsets the bearish energy thesis. Separately, IBM issued a dire profit warning, sending its stock down over 25% in its worst drop since 1968, citing enterprise software budget cuts to fund AI hardware. This is a major company-specific signal with sector-wide implications for enterprise tech. Cooling US inflation data (CPI 3.5% vs 3.9% expected) provides a bullish macro counterweight, reducing pressure on the Fed to hike. The US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING, while the IBM shock is a new negative for tech. The inflation data is a positive macro development.