WS #12097

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with active hostilities, but a key de-escalation signal emerged: Trump abandoned the proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz transit fee, replacing it with trade/investment deals with Gulf states. This caused oil to ease from session highs. However, the US has reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran retaliated with missile/drone attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and commercial tankers. Separately, IBM plunged 25% after a surprise earnings miss, wiping out $70 billion in market cap due to weak mainframe demand. This is a major company-specific signal that could drag on tech/semiconductor sentiment. South Korea exports posted strongest growth since 1978 on AI chip boom, a bullish signal for semiconductor demand. Senate Democrats blocked the $1.15 trillion NDAA in a 50-46 vote, citing Trump's unauthorized Iran war, a political check on escalation. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING for Iran conflict, but with a de-escalation counter-signal on Hormuz tolls. The IBM miss is a high-significance negative for tech, while South Korea export data is a positive for semiconductors.