WS #12100

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with IRGC claiming destruction of a US logistics center in Kuwait and US forces striking Chabahar. Trump held a Situation Room meeting to discuss a 'massive offensive' against Iran, and US forces resumed the naval blockade of Iranian ports. However, Trump reversed his 20% Hormuz transit fee proposal, replacing it with trade/investment deals with Gulf states, which dampens the oil supply crisis narrative. Oil prices rose ~1% (WTI ~$80, Brent ~$86) on renewed strikes and blockade. Separately, US June CPI came in cooler than expected (-0.4% MoM headline, core flat), sharply reducing rate hike expectations and boosting risk assets. Asian markets rallied on the CPI data, with South Korea's Kospi surging 6.3%. IBM shares plunged 25% on weak preliminary earnings, citing AI-related spending pauses and capex reprioritization toward AI infrastructure. China Q2 GDP slowed to 4.3% YoY, missing the 4.5-5% target, with continued property weakness. The PBOC announced a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity. A bipartisan US Senate bill proposes sweeping Russia sanctions, including tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING for Iran conflict, but with a de-escalation counter-signal on Hormuz tolls. The CPI data is a high-significance positive for risk assets, but oil price resurgence and Fed caution are key risks. IBM's crash is a major negative for enterprise tech, but may be company-specific rather than sector-wide.