WS #12103

The dominant signal in this window is ASML's blockbuster Q2 earnings beat and second guidance raise, corroborated across CNBC, Seeking Alpha, pro-wire, and GlobeNewswire. ASML reported Q2 EPS of €7.59 (beat by €0.60), revenue of €9.3B (+21.3% Y/Y), and raised full-year net sales guidance to €43-45B with gross margin 54-56%. Q3 guidance of €11-12B sales and 55-57% gross margin also topped expectations. The company announced capacity expansions for DUV immersion and Low NA EUV for 2027-2028, and Intel Foundry entered high-volume manufacturing using ASML's High NA EUV for Panther Lake processors. This is a high-significance positive for the semiconductor equipment sector and AI-related chip demand, directly benefiting ASML and indirectly supporting NVDA, TSMC, and AMD. The narrative arc for AI/semis is ESCALATING bullish, countering the prior IBM-driven negative sentiment on legacy IT. Separately, US inflation data (June CPI headline 3.5% vs 4.2% prior, core 2.6% vs 2.9%) cooled more than expected, collapsing Fed rate hike odds from 43% to 13% and boosting Bitcoin above $64,000. This is a cross-source corroborated macro positive for risk assets. The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with CENTCOM announcing a new naval blockade of Iranian ports and fresh strikes on military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump threatens to hit power plants and bridges. However, Dubai announced plans to build a new port to bypass Hormuz, a counter-signal that could dampen the oil supply disruption thesis. Oil prices remain elevated but the Hormuz bypass counters the worst-case scenario. China's Q2 GDP grew 4.3% YoY, missing 4.5% estimates, with weak domestic demand and falling fixed asset investment, a negative for China-exposed sectors but partially offset by strong exports. The Stripe/Advent PayPal acquisition offer ($60.50/share, ~$53B) is ongoing but no new developments in this window. Senate Democrats blocked the defense bill in protest of Trump's Iran hostilities, a political escalation but with limited direct market impact. Overall, the ASML earnings and US inflation data are the highest-signal items, both bullish for tech and risk assets.