WS #12105

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with Trump reversing his Strait of Hormuz toll proposal and restarting the Iran port blockade, as reported by multiple sources including BBC and Al Jazeera. This is corroborated by reports of Ukraine expanding attacks to the Sea of Azov, damaging Russian oil refining to its lowest since 2005, and Russia attacking Ukrainian port infrastructure. The narrative arc is ESCALATING. Counter-signals include the Fed's Warsh refusing forward guidance, which dampens rate hike expectations, and the x402 Foundation launch backed by Visa, Mastercard, and Ripple, which could boost crypto adoption. China's Q2 GDP miss (4.3% vs 4.5%) is offset by strong industrial production (5.3% vs 4.7%), but property drag persists. DeepSeek's $70B valuation chase signals continued AI investment mania. TeraWulf fell 7% on New York data center permit pause. The IBM revenue miss is stale and not repeated. The dominant theme is US-Iran conflict ESCALATING, with oil supply disruption risk rising, countered by the Fed's dovish stance but not yet material.