WS #12138

The dominant narrative is a sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed again after a ceasefire collapse. This is driving oil prices higher and creating broad market stress, particularly for airlines and consumer sectors. Simultaneously, a major tech selloff is underway, led by a historic 25% crash in IBM after a revenue miss, dragging down Dell and other hardware names. However, there are significant counter-signals: Anthropic is moving toward a mega-IPO, and Warren Buffett revealed a massive new stake in Alphabet, providing a bullish undercurrent for AI and big tech. The macro picture is further complicated by weak Chinese GDP data (4.3% vs 4.5% expected), which is pressuring commodity stocks and raising deflation fears. The Fed's Cook signaled a patient but hawkish stance, prepared to act if disinflation stalls. Overall, the market is caught between geopolitical risk, sector rotation, and mixed economic signals, with the US-Iran war escalation being the highest-impact, most corroborated signal.