WS #12149

The US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING with a second wave of US strikes launched at 3:00 PM ET targeting Iranian military capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by CENTCOM and multiple sources. Explosions reported in Bandar Abbas, Ahvaz, and Chabahar. Iran's parliament speaker declared an 'existential war' with the US. However, Trump simultaneously stated 'Iran wants to settle' and 'we'll find out if we settle with them,' creating a mixed signal that could cap oil price upside. Shipping companies are now refusing US-guided military transit through the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks on vessels, threatening a de facto blockade. The IEA strategic reserve is nearly depleted, removing a key buffer. Oil prices slipped ~1% on Wednesday as the market weighs escalation against potential diplomacy. Separately, the Fed's Beige Book showed economic activity broadened to almost all districts, while Fed Chair Warsh sidestepped questions on inflation and AI. Apple's China AI approval (powered by Alibaba's Qwen model) is a bullish signal for AAPL, while IBM's warning that AI spending is squeezing software budgets sent shares lower. Morgan Stanley won preliminary OCC approval for a digital-asset trust bank, a bullish signal for crypto adoption. BofA's July Fund Manager Survey showed 82% of managers believe 'long global semiconductors' is the most crowded trade, suggesting potential for unwinding.