WS #12177

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with multiple sources reporting fresh US airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure and Iran retaliating by striking US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. The IRGC claims to have attacked the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the Azraq base in Jordan, while CENTCOM confirms strikes on Iranian command centers. Oil prices have risen for a fourth consecutive day on fears of Strait of Hormuz disruption, with a Polymarket contract on fewer than 100 ships transiting the strait this week seeing activity. The US also disabled an oil tanker attempting to violate the naval blockade. This escalation is the dominant signal, with oil and defense stocks likely to move. Meanwhile, US inflation data (CPI and PPI) came in softer than expected, with June PPI falling 0.3% month-over-month, the largest drop in 14 months. This has reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike in July to around 11%, according to CME FedWatch. However, Fed officials remain divided on the inflation outlook. In corporate news, Anthropic is preparing for an IPO as early as October, with investment banks arranging investor meetings. SpaceX shares fell below their IPO price of $135 for the first time. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought $16.6 million of SpaceX shares. The South Korean tech rout deepens, with KOSPI nearing circuit breaker levels. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for the US-Iran conflict, while the inflation story is STABLE with a disinflationary tilt. The Anthropic IPO and SpaceX decline are notable but secondary to the geopolitical risk.