WS #12181

The data dump is dominated by noise: thousands of Polymarket trades on Bitcoin/ETH direction, sports bets, and political prediction markets. However, several actionable signals emerge. First, the US has imposed 25% tariffs on most Brazilian goods effective July 22, following a Section 301 investigation, which is a significant escalation in trade tensions. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Guardian, CNBC, Al Jazeera). Second, the US military has struck a supertanker near Iran's key oil export terminal, escalating the conflict and supporting oil prices. Third, Apple Intelligence's approval in China has sparked a rally in Alibaba and Baidu shares, a positive for Apple's China prospects. Fourth, the Bank of Korea unexpectedly hiked rates to 2.75%, its first tightening since 2023, which is a hawkish surprise for Asian markets. Fifth, the ATAI/LLY M&A story from the previous window is carried forward as it remains unrefuted. The Iran narrative is escalating with US strikes continuing for a fifth day. The BOJ survey showing worsening consumer sentiment is stale and already priced. Overall, the window has moderate signal with trade war escalation, Iran oil disruption, and a hawkish BOK rate hike.