WS #12183

The dominant signal in this window is the ongoing TSMC earnings call, with multiple Reuters-sourced updates confirming strong AI demand and a bullish outlook ('next few years will be very good business'). This corroborates the previous window's TSMC beat and reinforces the bullish semiconductor thesis. Separately, a new geopolitical escalation emerges: Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea and the Yaroslavl refinery, while US strikes hit Iran (Hamadan province) and Trump claims Iran called him seeking a deal. These developments introduce oil supply disruption risk and potential de-escalation counter-signals. UK economic data (GDP, industrial production) came in mixed, with GDP MoM slightly above expectations but IP missing. Japan's Nikkei fell 2.63%. Telenor missed earnings. The TSMC narrative is ESCALATING (more bullish details), while the Iran/Ukraine oil disruption narrative is ESCALATING but with a potential counter-signal from Trump's claim of a call with Iran.