WS #12185

The US-Iran military conflict is ESCALATING with a second wave of US strikes on Iran and reports of explosions across Iran, while Trump simultaneously says Iran wants to make a deal and announces release of a US citizen held in Iran. Brent oil has topped $85. The IEA warns the world has just weeks before economic toll from Strait of Hormuz disruption. A potential counter-signal: Trump's announcement of a US citizen release could signal diplomatic off-ramp. Separately, NVIDIA and Japan launched the world's first national AI infrastructure with Vera Rubin AI factory, a bullish signal for NVDA. TSMC plans additional $100B US investment, reinforcing the semiconductor capex cycle. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, a new trade war front. UK GDP grew 0.1% in May, slightly above expectations. Nasdaq futures are down 0.4% on global chip weakness, but this is likely noise given the TSMC/NVIDIA positive signals. The dominant narrative remains geopolitical risk from Iran, with oil supply disruption as the key transmission mechanism.