WS #12190
Geopolitical risk from the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with multiple corroborated reports of expanded hostilities. Iran has told Houthi rebels to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Kuwait intercepted Iranian drones, and US forces disabled an oil tanker heading to Kharg Island. The drone incident at Basra Oil Terminal was clarified as not a direct attack, and Iraqi crude loadings have more than doubled in early July, partially countering the oil supply disruption thesis. Middle East bond spreads hit 2022 highs as ceasefire breaks down. Separately, earnings season continues with mixed results: GE Aerospace beat estimates but shares fell on margin pressure; Abbott Labs beat and raised guidance; State Street and ManpowerGroup also beat; UnitedHealth beat and raised. TSMC's AI spending spree tests investor nerves. Google lost EU court fight over €4.1B Android antitrust fine. Merck's Lipfendra (oral PCSK9 inhibitor) approved in US. The dominant narrative remains geopolitical risk from Iran with oil supply implications, but the Iraq loading restart and clarification on Basra drone incident partially counter the bullish oil thesis.
Topics
Key developments
- Iran tells Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait if US strikes Iranian infrastructure
- Kuwait intercepts Iranian drones; US disables tanker heading to Kharg Island
- Middle East bond spreads hit 2022 high as ceasefire breaks down
- GE Aerospace beats Q2 estimates but shares fall on margin pressure
- Abbott Laboratories beats Q2 estimates and raises FY26 guidance
- Google loses EU court fight over €4.1B Android antitrust fine
- Merck's Lipfendra (oral PCSK9 inhibitor) approved in US
- TSMC hikes 2026 revenue outlook and raises capital spending to $60B-$64B