WS #12196

The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran/Houthi conflict, with multiple new developments in this window. Iran has instructed Houthis to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if US strikes Iranian infrastructure (Reuters-sourced post). Iraq has halted crude oil loading at all terminals following drone strikes on Basra Oil Terminal attributed to Iranian-backed actors. Explosions were reported in Bandar Abbas, and a US strike on an Iranian tanker near Kharg Island reportedly spiked oil past $112. These events represent a significant escalation in the conflict, directly threatening oil supply chokepoints. The geopolitical risk premium on oil is rising sharply, with implications for energy stocks, airlines, and consumer sectors. Separately, US retail sales for June came in at +0.2% MoM, matching expectations, which is a modest positive but unlikely to shift Fed policy. GE Aerospace reported strong Q2 earnings (EPS $2.02, beat by 9%) and raised full-year guidance, highlighting aerospace demand. IBM saw a price target cut from $310 to $250 by Evercore ISI, reflecting ongoing enterprise software headwinds. Options flow showed aggressive call buying in META ($343M premium) and JPM ($54M premium), while MU saw balanced activity with $1.4B premium. The macro narrative is ESCALATING on geopolitical tensions, with oil supply disruption risks intensifying.