WS #12198

The dominant narrative remains the escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, with new developments intensifying supply disruption risks. Iran has instructed Houthis to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US strikes Iranian infrastructure, per Reuters. Iraq has halted crude oil loading at all terminals following drone strikes on the Basra Oil Terminal attributed to Iranian-backed groups. Ukrainian naval drones struck two Russian shadow fleet oil tankers in the Black Sea, while Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure continue. These events collectively threaten oil supply chokepoints and have pushed WTI crude above $80/bbl. US pending home sales plunged 5.4% in June versus -0.5% expected, the biggest miss in months, signaling housing market weakness. TSMC posted record Q2 results and raised 2026 outlook (>40% growth) but stock dipped ~2% on profit-taking. SpaceX's first Starship launch as a public company is scheduled for tonight at 6:45 PM ET. The macro narrative is ESCALATING on geopolitical risks, with oil supply disruption fears intensifying. No counter-signals observed.