WS #12204
The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its energy market implications, with new escalations reported. US missile strikes near Qeshm Island and Houthi threats to Bab al-Mandeb Strait are increasing supply disruption risks. Oil prices remain elevated near one-month highs, with Brent around $85 and WTI near $79.50. The Strait of Hormuz transit has dropped to 7 ships on Wednesday, down from 13 the previous day. Gold has fallen below $4,000 as oil-driven inflation fears dampen rate cut expectations. A key counter-signal emerged: Apple Intelligence received regulatory approval in China via partnerships with Alibaba and Baidu, which could boost iPhone demand in China. TSMC's strong earnings and increased capex outlook ($62B vs $54B prior) reinforce the AI infrastructure buildout thesis. Eli Lilly's $3.8B acquisition of Ataibeckley signals continued M&A in biotech. US pending home sales fell 5.4% vs -0.5% expected, a significant miss. The US imposed 25% tariffs on some Brazilian imports starting July 22. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on the US-Iran conflict, with no de-escalation signals in this window.
Topics
Key developments
- US missile strikes near Qeshm Island, Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses to 7 ships
- Apple Intelligence approved for launch in China with Alibaba and Baidu partnerships
- TSMC Q2 earnings beat, FY26 capex raised to ~$62B, revenue guidance +40% Y/Y
- Eli Lilly acquires Ataibeckley for up to $3.8B in psychedelic neuroscience push
- US pending home sales plunge 5.4% vs -0.5% expected
- US imposes 25% tariff on some Brazilian imports starting July 22