WS #12211

The dominant signal in this window is a sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting US missile strikes on Bandar Abbas and Behbahan in Iran, and explosions in central Dubai. This marks a significant escalation from the previously stable narrative. The strikes are hitting oil infrastructure, with an oil tanker near Iran's main export terminal targeted, and shipping traffic slumping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has reportedly instructed the Houthis to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait if the US strikes Iranian power infrastructure. This geopolitical shock is driving a broad risk-off move in equities, with the Nasdaq falling ~1% and semiconductor stocks under pressure from TSMC capex concerns. Energy stocks are set to benefit from the oil price spike, while airlines and consumer stocks face headwinds. Separately, the EU approved the first oral GLP-1 weight management pill (Wegovy), a significant development for the obesity drug market. Netflix earnings are due after the bell, with expectations for ad-tier progress. The US-Iran escalation is the primary market-moving factor, with potential for further volatility depending on diplomatic developments.