WS #12222

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. US CENTCOM began a fifth consecutive night of strikes against Iran at 2 p.m. ET, targeting Bandar Abbas and other areas. Iran has asked Houthis to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening a simultaneous disruption of both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb oil routes. This has pushed Brent crude to $84.76 and WTI to $79.43, with oil prices holding near multi-week highs. The Strait of Hormuz closure is already removing ~$20B/day from global GDP. Chevron plans to sign an Iraqi oil agreement to bypass the Strait, a potential counter-signal to the oil supply crisis. Meanwhile, the AI hardware trade continues to bleed: SMH and SOXX are down 15-20% from highs, TSMC's beat-and-raise failed to stem the selloff, and Supermicro dropped 6% on AI hardware correction fears. Alphabet shares fell on reports of Gemini 3.5 Pro delay. On the positive side, UnitedHealth reported Q2 revenue of $112B and raised 2026 EPS outlook, driving the stock up 6% and supporting the Dow. The SEC officially dropped the Ripple lawsuit, a bullish signal for XRP and crypto. T. Rowe Price launched the first actively managed multi-token spot crypto ETF (TKNZ). Fed's Logan favored modestly higher rates to lower inflation, a hawkish signal. The Kalshi insider trading scandal involving Trump's teleprompter operator is a notable political development but has limited direct market impact.