WS #12232

The dominant market narrative remains a broad tech selloff led by semiconductor stocks, with the Nasdaq falling 1.47% and the S&P 500 down 0.51%. The selloff is driven by ongoing concerns over AI stock overvaluation and a global chip glut, with notable declines in NVDA (-2.40%), AMD, ARM, and Micron (-5.65%). This is partially offset by Apple's (+1.76%) rise to all-time highs on China regulatory news, acting as a MAG7 carve-out. The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with new airstrikes hitting a bridge in southern Iran and a supertanker in the Persian Gulf, keeping oil prices elevated and geopolitical risk high. However, no ceasefire or de-escalation signals emerged in this window. In earnings, Netflix reported mixed Q2 results (EPS beat, revenue miss) with weaker guidance, sending the stock down ~8% in after-hours trading. Intuitive Surgical beat estimates but fell on China challenges. Valero Energy authorized a $5B buyback, a positive signal for the energy sector. Morgan Stanley launched crypto trading on E*Trade, a bullish signal for crypto adoption. Coca-Cola's fairlife subsidiary suffered a ransomware attack halting US production, a negative for KO. The equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed, suggesting broadening market participation away from mega-cap tech. Key developments in this window include: (1) Renewed US airstrikes in southern Iran, targeting a bridge and railway station, escalating the conflict and supporting oil prices. (2) Netflix after-hours drop of ~8% on mixed Q2 results and weak guidance, a negative for NFLX and the broader streaming sector. (3) Intuitive Surgical beat Q2 estimates but fell on China challenges, a mixed signal for ISRG. (4) Valero Energy's $5B buyback authorization, a bullish signal for VLO and the energy sector. (5) Morgan Stanley launching crypto trading on E*Trade, a bullish signal for crypto adoption and MS. (6) Coca-Cola's fairlife ransomware attack halting US production, a negative for KO. (7) The equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming, suggesting broadening market participation. (8) Asian LNG spot prices jumping 10% on Hormuz crisis, supporting energy prices. (9) IEA predicting first decrease in global oil demand since 2020, a potential counter to the bullish oil thesis. (10) Syria intercepting Hezbollah weapons shipment, a geopolitical development in the Middle East. (11) BlackRock leading crypto ETF inflows, signaling renewed institutional interest. (12) Trump Media planning to sell high-speed access to president's social media posts, a potential market-moving development for DJT. (13) EU forcing Google to share search data and open up AI on Android, a regulatory negative for GOOGL. (14) Wildfire smoke blanketing World Cup final stadium, a non-market event but notable. (15) Spain, Mexico, Ireland, and Belgium joining genocide case against Israel at ICC, a geopolitical development. (16) US 30-year mortgage rate hitting 6.55%, a negative for housing and consumer sectors. (17) Bank of Korea hiking 25bp to 2.75%, a hawkish signal for Asian markets. (18) Fed's Logan saying AI investment demand is inflationary, a hawkish Fed comment. (19) Australian consumer inflation expectations falling to 4.7%, a dovish signal for RBA. (20) PBOC setting USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7909, a slight weakening signal.