WS #12290

The dominant narrative remains a severe tech selloff driven by China's Moonshot AI Kimi K3 model, with semiconductors under heavy pressure. However, several new signals have emerged in this window. Apple is in early settlement talks with the DOJ over its antitrust case, which could remove a major overhang and is a bullish counter-signal to the tech rout. Meta is paring losses on reports of a $10 billion compute deal with Anthropic, corroborated by CNBC and NYT, supporting AI infrastructure demand. The US-Iran conflict is escalating: satellite imagery confirms damage at King Faisal Airbase from Iranian strikes, and the US is sending more refueling planes to Israel for a potential massive offensive. Crude oil surged 4% to $81, with energy stocks up 1.4%. Russia banned diesel exports due to domestic shortages from Ukrainian refinery strikes, adding to energy supply tightness. Xi Jinping declared China will lead the world in AI, reinforcing the competitive threat. Netflix was downgraded by KGI Securities to Neutral with a $75 target. The tech selloff narrative is ESCALATING, but the Apple DOJ settlement and Meta-Anthropic deal provide partial offsets for specific MAG7 names.