WS #12326

The US-Iran conflict has escalated sharply in the last 30 minutes, with multiple corroborating reports of a major incident in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claim two oil tankers exploded after hitting mines in the waterway, and that four 'violating' tankers were stopped in a combined missile and drone operation. Saudi civil defence issued early warnings in Yanbu and Al-Kharj, later saying danger had passed. The US launched its seventh straight night of strikes on Iran, and Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, US, and Jordan. This represents a significant escalation from the previous stable narrative. Separately, the AI sector faces renewed pressure from Chinese startup Moonshot AI's new model, which is catching up to US frontier models, reviving competition fears similar to the DeepSeek episode. This weighed on semiconductor stocks (AMAT -5.6%, SOXX -1.6%) and the broader Nasdaq. Netflix fell 7.3% after a disappointing Q3 revenue forecast. On the counter-signal front, Iraq signed deals with Western oil firms to revive the Syria pipeline, which could provide an alternative export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, potentially offsetting some of the oil supply disruption fears. Trump threatened Canada with additional tariffs over wildfire smoke, adding a new geopolitical friction.