WS #12338

The dominant signal in this window is the sharp escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with the US completing a seventh straight night of strikes on Iran and Iran retaliating against US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with only three vessels transiting in the past 24 hours, and Iran claims to have blocked four tankers. This has driven oil prices sharply higher, with Brent above $88 and WTI reclaiming $80. The escalation counters the previous ceasefire narrative and is a bearish development for global equities and risk assets, while bullish for energy. Separately, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and a Wildberries warehouse near Moscow killed seven, adding to supply-side concerns. On the tech side, Meta's AI hyperscaler pivot and Apple briefly overtaking Nvidia in market cap are notable but secondary to the geopolitical crisis. The US Senate bill proposing 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil (including India and China) is a new development that could further disrupt energy trade flows. The overall narrative arc is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals detected.