WS #12436

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with multiple sources confirming a sixth straight week of US strikes on Iran, Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, and Brent crude oil rising 3% to $90.74/barrel. Kuwaiti air defenses are actively intercepting Iranian drones and projectiles, and IRGC boats have diverted 6 ships from the Omani passage. This represents an ESCALATION of the US-Iran conflict narrative, with new tactical developments (Kuwaiti interceptions, IRGC ship diversions) and a confirmed oil price surge. The previous ceasefire is now explicitly declared 'over' by Trump. The market impact is clear: energy stocks bullish, airlines/shipping bearish, and broader indices under pressure from inflation fears. Separately, a key counter-signal emerges: US inflation data for June came in cooler than expected (headline 3.5% vs 3.8% expected, core flat MoM), driven by a drop in energy prices after a preliminary truce. This dampens the bearish macro thesis from oil-driven inflation, though Fed Chair Warsh's testimony suggests rate hikes remain possible. The tech selloff continues, with semiconductors down nearly 9% in a week, but a MAG7 carve-out exists: Apple has reportedly increased orders for iPhone Ultra components, signaling stronger-than-expected demand for its foldable device, which could support AAPL against the broader tech weakness. Other notable signals: Japan joining South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the ICJ (geopolitical noise for markets), SpaceX moving Starship launch to Thursday (minor space/defense catalyst), and a Russian oil depot strike in Stavropol (supply disruption supporting oil).