WS #12440

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with CENTCOM launching a ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran at 7 PM ET, including ATACMS launches from Kuwait and explosions reported at Iranian ports. Iran has retaliated with strikes on Kurdish opposition bases in Iraq and is reportedly considering a ground incursion into Kuwait. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, with the US forcing six ships to alter course. Oil prices have surged, with Brent crossing $90/barrel and WTI near $85, as a refinery shortage threatens a new fuel crisis. Counter-signals remain absent; the only potential offset is a Trump official stating the mission has pivoted toward ensuring oil flow, but no concrete action has been taken. Separately, TSMC's CFO confirmed 'strong, multi-year' AI chip demand and an additional $100B Arizona investment, a bullish signal for semiconductors that contradicts the broader tech selloff narrative. The World Cup final (Spain 1-0 Argentina) and associated Trump-related social media noise are non-market events. The Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump's global tariffs is a significant development that counters the protectionist trade thesis, but it is not new in this window (it was reported earlier).