WS #14090

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran/Hormuz crisis, which is in ESCALATION mode. New developments in this window include: (1) Iran attacked two ADNOC-affiliated UAE oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, drawing condemnation from Qatar, the GCC, and Egypt; (2) tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed to just six vessels on a recent Sunday, all in 'dark mode' (AIS disabled), with Kuwait joining dark-mode transits; (3) the US Navy is sending the USS George Washington to the Middle East amid reports of severe morale and mental health issues on the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been at sea for 250 days; (4) a US Tomahawk missile hit a school in Minab, Iran, killing ~110-120 children, per Hegseth critics; (5) India cut windfall taxes on petrol, diesel, and ATF exports effective Aug 15, a counter-signal to high fuel prices. Oil prices remain elevated (WTI ~$82, Brent ~$88), and the 30-year Treasury yield is near 5.24%, with the US national debt set to surpass $40 trillion. The equity market is pulling back from record highs (S&P 500 -0.19%, Nasdaq -0.31%), with semiconductor stocks like Applied Materials (-11.55%) and Broadcom (-6.95%) leading declines, while energy (Chevron +1.42%) and defense names outperform. Reddit was added to the S&P 500, sending its stock up ~14%. Tiger Global's 13F reveals significant stake reductions in major tech names (NVDA -7%, MSFT -9%, GOOGL -45%, AMZN -3%, META -9%, TSM -12%), which could weigh on sentiment. The Hormuz escalation is the primary driver of oil and safe-haven flows, and the tanker attack is a fresh escalation point that will likely keep oil bid and airlines under pressure.