WS #14092

The dominant theme remains the escalating Middle East crisis, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade and US-Iran tensions continuing to drive oil prices higher. Brent is up 1.64% to $88.50, WTI up 1.92% to $82.81, with crude flows down to ~5M barrels/day vs 21.6M in 2025. The Trump administration plans further economic sanctions on Iran next week and maintains an indefinite naval blockade, while Houthi drone strikes on Saudi Aramco's Jizan refinery threaten to widen the conflict. This is corroborated by multiple sources including Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, and financial news outlets. Oil is heading toward a 5% weekly gain, pushing toward $100, with energy stocks (XOM, CVX) rising while airlines (DAL, UAL) face cost pressures. The 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.269% (+5.8bps), with TLT at $81.91, its lowest since 2004, as the long bond rout continues. The equity market is pulling back from record highs, with S&P 500 -0.20%, Nasdaq -0.44%, as retail sales data showed a sharp drop, adding to concerns about consumer spending. The equity-credit disconnect is widening, with hedge funds heavily long Treasuries. In tech, Apple is reportedly training its own LLM for China with Alibaba's help, a departure from relying on third-party models, which could impact AAPL and its China strategy. Tiger Global's Q2 13F shows significant moves: new stakes in Cerebras (2.999M shares), Intel (+160%), and AMD (674,727 shares), while cutting NVDA (-7%), MSFT (-9%), META (-9%), and Broadcom (-51%). This suggests a rotation within AI/semis. SpaceX completed its $60B acquisition of Cursor, and Nvidia's $500B AI financing plan is gaining Wall Street backing, with Goldman, Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, and Brookfield involved. The macro narrative is stable-to-escalating on Middle East tensions, with no de-escalation signals.